The Turkey-Israel rift under the pretext of Mavi Marmara incident disrupted the Israeli military contracts for the supply of UAVs to Turkey. Though the Israeli Defense Ministry does not disclose figures on its UAV exports to Turkey, but they are estimated at about $300 Mln annually over the past five years in equipment, maintenance, support and training services. The Israeli UAVs are indispensable in the fight with Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) insurgents.
Turkey is looking to replace Israel by US or EU suppliers. The Obama administration has indicated its willingness to the lease or sale of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to Turkey, pending approval by the US Congress (unlikely event by itself). However, our analysts doubt that such replacement is possible for the following reasons:
Technical and cost considerations
Technical difficulties and costs of replacements for the Turkish side are staggering: another platform, steep learning curve, entire infrastructure has to be replaced. Generally US and EU alternatives are more expensive than the Israeli models.
Political considerations
It’s unlikely that US and EU will be willing to supply UAVs to a country on collision course with the West. Possibly US and EU governments consider option of recognising Kurdistan as a sovereign state in the future to balance regional forces. In this scenario UAV suply turns into bargaining chip to influence both Turkish and Kurdish sides.
Economic considerations
Suppliers have to be paid and the military toys are expensive. Some analysts consider the Turkish economy a bubble that can burst any moment. Turkey’s budget deficit is at 9.5%, for the sake of comparison the Greek economy collapsed having reached budget deficit of 10%. High Turkey’s GDP growth rates of the recent years were artificially inflated by Erdogan regime’s easy going populist fiscal policies – low interest rates, easily available loans, printing money to solve economic problems.
So, will Turkey get UAVs? Unlikely by any account.